Rowley's Last Dance?
Keith Rowley is not Mitch McConnell - I hope. When McConnell was presented with an opportunity to consider and confirm Merrick Garland for the Supreme Court of the United States in 2016 he declined to even consider the nomination, citing the need for the American people to have a ‘voice’ in that selection in an election year. When the exact situation repeated itself in 2020 he wasted little time to expedite the consideration and confirmation of Amy Cony Barrett - no talk then about the American people needing a voice - and we know the reason why. Barack Obama was President in 2016, and Donald Trump was President in 2020.
In the case of Dr.Keith Rowley as he contemplates whether or not to screen as a candidate for Diego Martin West, we here in Trindad and Tobago find ourselves in that same McConnellian space - that of considering (hypocritically or not) the voice of the people in possibly deciding who would be the next Prime Minister of Trinidad and Tobago. Keith Rowley is the man who implemented ‘one-man, one vote’ in the PNM so that every rank and file member can have a direct stake in the selection of the Political Leader of the party, and by extension the possible Prime Minister of Trinidad and Tobago. The present goings-on as the PNM screens its 2025 General Election candidates is an opportunity for him to hold to that tenet even when inconvenient, unlike McConnell in the US case.
If Dr. Rowley declines the screening process of his party it would leave the PNM in the same situation in which the Democrats in the US found themselves in 2024 - having to decide on the eve of a General Election who would lead the campaign and thus be the person to take over as leader of the country should their party win. If that happens, would the Prime Minister leave it up to the PNM to decide their figure head, or would he do as Joe Biden did and annoint a chosen successor?
If a chosen successor is annointed the democratic process by which the PNM is carded to elect a leader in 2026 would have been circumvented, and the possible next Prime Minister of Trinidad and Tobago would have been chosen by a process that left the people of the PNM out of the equation, just as the rank and file Democratic members were left out of the process of choosing Kamala Harris as their nominee in 2024. As Biden did in the US Rowley can make the argument that there is hardly time for an open leadership contest, and then he can go to the PNM General Council and make a case for whomever he wishes to annoint as a successor. Whether or not the General Council would go along in such a situation is anyone’s guess.
If Dr. Rowley declines the nomination of his constituency and steps back from any process of choosing a campaign figure-head for the party, the 2026 PNM leadership contest would have been brought forward to 2024/2025 - hardly a situation that any PNM supporter wants heading into a General Election where the PNM appears to be shaky at this moment - a little less than one year out. This contest will likely take place aong the present Parliamentary conclave of 22 MP’s if nothing is done to make it available to the rank and file membership of the party. In other words, pre-Election the rank and file membership of the party would have been denied an opportunity to make their voices heard in the matter of choosing the party’s next Political Leader. If this scenario materializes and the PNM wins the 2025 Election then at the very last hurdle, the new Parliamentary conclave of 22 or 23 MP’s will be the ones making the ultimate decision on who they will support as their leader in Parliament and by extension as the next Prime Minister of Trinidad and Tobago - and again the people of the PNM would have been left out of the tangible decision-making process.
Does Prime Minister Rowley want to leave the PNM members out of the process of deciding who would be the next Prime Minister of Trinidad and Tobago should the PNM win the 2025 Election? Personally I hope the answer is ‘no’, and if that turns out to be the case then we can look at another scenario in addition to those considered earlier. In this scenario Dr. Rowley would lead the PNM through the 2025 campaign - his swansong from all indications - with the clear understanding that if the party loses he stays on as MP for Diego Martin West until the PNM leadership Election in 2026 - that way the people of the party will have a direct say in the selection of the Opposition Leader who would lead the party into the 2030 General Election. If the party wins in 2025, the people of the PNM will have a direct say in who would be the next Prime Minister of Trinidad and Tobago post 2026 - unless of course the party wins and Rowley changes his mind and decides to stay on for a full third term (yes, politicians do these things - ask Joe Biden and Dr. Rowley himself)
If he does not stay on past 2026 as MP for Diego Martin West, he would then step down as MP as soon as the 2026 PNM leadership Elections are over - with a duly elected PNM Political Leader in place, who will have already taken the oath of Prime Ministerial Office - thus completing a seamless transition from himself as PM to whoever the people of the PNM decide. The party will then contest a national Parliamentary bye-election to fill the vacant Diego Martin West seat.
In an alternative scenario the Prime Minister may consider that he has good reasons or reasons to not want one or the other of Foster Cummings, Penelope Beckles, Stuart Young, Colm Imbert or whoever else from amongst the Parliamentarians as the next Political Leader. The rumoured declination of a Diego Martin West nomination if it comes to pass may then be his way of putting his thumb on the scale to ensure that one or others of the field of aspirants is knocked out of the ring - in the interest of the people I am sure he will say: whether or not the people of the PNM and by extension the people of the nation would buy that is anyone’s guess. In this scenario then, the Prime Minister can decline to screen for Diego Martin West and leave it up to the present Parliamentary conclave to choose the figure-head for the 2025 campaign; but does anyone seriously believe in such a scenario that Rowley would not be pulling strings in the background to position his personal favourite to (1) be chosen as the 2025 campaign figure head, and (2) be chosen as the PNM Leader in the Parliament after the 2025 General Election? He can just as well loudly announce who he may personally wish to have succeed him - but in politics as in life, some things simply have to be done quietly.
Dr. Amery Browne is the other person whose name is mentioned seriously in PNM circles as a possible successor to Dr. Rowley as Political Leader of the party and Prime Minister of the country - the problem if the party (or just Rowley himself) wants him in that race is that he is not in the Parliament at this moment, and the only way to insert him in time for the 2025 Election apppears to be to have one of the present Diego Martin MP’s step down. It’s hard to imagine Browne screening for La Brea, but you never know, stranger things happen all the time.
If Rowley and Imbert (Diego Martin West and East respectively) stay on, then Diego Martin Central MP Symon de Nobriga may be asked to step down to allow Dr.Browne to screen for Diego Martin Central so that he can be in place as a Member of Parliament when the race for Political Leader gets going. Whether or not de Nobriga and the Diego Martin Central constituency agree to this (if it comes to that) remains to be seen. If this scenario unfolds and they do, it would be eerily reminiscent of Dr.Eric Williams asking then San Fernando East MP Gerard Montano to step aside to make way for a young Patrick Manning back in 1971 in the wake of the 1970 Black Power uprising.
If Imbert and de Nobriga stay on and Browne (or anyone else) screens for Diego Martin West, they may do so with an understanding to take the Prime Minister’s side in whatever political machinations would be at play in the selection of a 2025 campaign figure head; or maybe Dr. Rowley will just let that person enter the fray and be allowed to make their own decision, who knows? Either way the rank and file membership of the party will be left out of the decision in the hope that the nation as a whole would chose to return the PNM to power with the conclave’s choice as campaign figure head atop the ticket. That choice would then become Prime Minister and the PNM Leadership Election of 2026 would be relegated to mere formality - a consecration of the king already seated on the throne. In any situation where Dr. Rowley steps down before the election, the PNM Leadership Election of 2026 would have meaningful significance only if the party loses the 2025 General Election.
As it was in the United States recently, the final decision will be made by the incumbent leader himself - and even more so than in the US it is hard to imagine anyone ‘pushing’ Rowley out if he decides not to go now - unless there are forces working behind the scenes which the public may not be privy to see. The only time in our post-Independence history when a Prime Minister was chosen without direct reference to the people at any level was in 1981 when the exigency of Dr. Williams’ death in office demanded that then President Sir Ellis Clarke make a selection as is the power of the President to do in such circumstances. History will record that after consultation with PNM top brass, George Chambers was selected as Prime Minister - and the PNM would then go on to lose the 1986 Election 33-3 in the throes of a deep recession that would likely have tanked the party no matter who was the leader.
The historical and institutional importance of the People’s National Movement to this country almost demands that at some meaningful level, the people of the party, the regular rank and file membership - have a say in who would be the next leader of the party (and by extension a possible Prime Minister of the country) - in 2026 and beyond. Unlike in 1981 there is still time for a way to be found to balance Dr. Rowley’s apparent desire to forget politics and go and mind sheep in Tobago with the principle of putting the ‘people’ in ‘PNM’. I was there on a few of those lonely nights in Diego Martin back in 2010 when Keith Rowley was all about the ‘people’ of the party; in those days he was a ‘wajang’, a rebel, a political outcast in his own party. Today Dr. Keith Christopher Rowley is ‘de boss’, but I hope he still feels as passionately about the participation of the PEOPLE of the PNM in its affairs as he did fourteen years ago.
He may not want to dance, but like Shadow in 1974’s ‘Bassman’, Dr. Rowley may have to prance - one last time, until 2026 - for the sake of PNM stability, institutional strength and political credibility heading into the next General Election and beyond.